Before anyone assigned a number to it, Kristina Lampert saw it. Most nights, the tip jar at Freighters, the restaurant where she works as a waiter in Port Huron, Michigan, would fill with both Canadian and US bills. That ceased to occur for a considerable portion of last year. It began again this spring, slowly, one Canadian bill at a time.
Compared to most economic indicators, that little detail says more. After more than a year of consistent decline, Statistics Canada reported that return travel by Canadian citizens from the United States increased 9.5% in May compared to the same month last year. This is the second consecutive month of growth. There isn’t a flood. It’s more akin to a trickle returning to a dry riverbed.
Border towns were the first to feel the effects of the actual dry spell. Crossings at locations like the Blue Water Bridge between Port Huron and Sarnia, Ontario, drastically decreased when tariffs increased in 2025 and rumors of Canada becoming the “51st state” circulated through Canadian media. Sales at duty-free stores in Canada dropped by as much as half, and occasionally even more. Parking lots that used to be crowded on Friday afternoons were largely deserted. It’s the kind of thing you see in a spreadsheet before you notice it when you pass a business.
There has been a change, but it would be premature to describe it as a complete recovery. Despite two months of improvements, industry data indicates that cross-border travel volumes are still far below where they were two years ago. When analyzing the data, analysts tend to use terms like “cautious” and “fragile” rather than “strong.” That hedging seems right. There’s a feeling that the worst might be over, but neither Port Huron nor Niagara Falls are celebrating with champagne just yet.
This is an intriguing moment because it’s unclear exactly what’s causing the return. Some of it appears to be straightforward economics, with households reevaluating whether it is worthwhile to forego a well-known diner across the bridge or a favorite outlet mall. Some of it might be due to weariness with the boycott itself; it’s difficult to maintain that kind of group decision for a year and a half, particularly for those who live close to the border and have developed routines around crossing it. A mailbox at a Port Huron shipping facility is still maintained by a Sarnia store owner. Such habits are difficult to break, even in times of political impasse.
The recovery seems to be driven by road travel, which is consistent with how these border economies actually function. Land crossings in border towns rely more on day-trippers—people stopping by for lunch, a church service, or a shopping run—than on tourists who fly in for a week. The larger, planned vacations that airlines and large hotel chains depend on appear to be taking longer to rebuild than that type of frequent, casual traffic.
The caution with which local officials are speaking feels well-deserved. The mayor of Port Huron spent a large portion of the previous year detailing the impact the standoff had on her community, and it would be incorrect to believe that two successful months would make up for eighteen challenging ones. Counties like Erie and Niagara saw significant declines in sales tax revenue, which can be seen in municipal services and road budgets long after the news has moved on. Those funds are not immediately replenished by an increase in vehicle traffic.
Nevertheless, the fact that this is taking place at all is something to be grateful for. Even a truly bitter year of tension does not permanently destroy cross-border relationships that have been built over decades or even generations. They flex. They occasionally snap back, albeit unevenly and more slowly than anyone would like.
Even those who are keeping a close eye on it aren’t prepared to guarantee whether this will be a long-lasting trend or a fleeting window before the next disruption. The real test will probably come during the upcoming summer travel season, when border towns will either see the momentum continue or watch it stall out once more. However, for the time being, diners along the Blue Water Bridge are once again hearing Canadian accents at their tables. It’s a minor issue. Additionally, it’s a big deal for towns that rely on bridge traffic to gauge their success.
