First to rise were the trees. As part of a Green Corridor project, ninety of them were planted along Houston’s Main Street to provide shade for soccer fans traveling between fan festivals and the stadium during the June heat. It’s a minor detail that could be overlooked in the larger discussion about stadiums and GDP forecasts. However, you get a better idea of what this tournament really looks like on the ground when you stand on that street and watch city workers mulch tree beds weeks before the opening whistle—less spectacular transformation, more frantic finishing.
The biggest FIFA World Cup in the history of the sport will take place in 2026. There are 48 teams, 104 games, and 16 cities in the US, Canada, and Mexico. It closes at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, after opening on June 11 in Mexico City and running through mid-July. For years, American host cities have made the same argument to their citizens and businesses: more teams translate into more fans, which in turn leads to more spending, which in turn leads to a boom. It’s another matter entirely whether or not that boom truly occurs and who gets to experience it.
Flight reservations have been monitored by travel intelligence firm Sojern, and the results are, at best, conflicting. It makes sense that Houston and Dallas are leading the tournament window in terms of year-over-year gains because both cities have robust hospitality infrastructure and aggressive local marketing. In contrast, Seattle’s booking pace is slower than it was last year. According to Jay Wardle, president of Sojern, demand is “real and positive, but it’s not evenly distributed.” The entire situation seems to be neatly summed up in that sentence.
Hotels are cautiously optimistic, which typically translates to “hoping for more than they’re seeing” in the hospitality industry. Tony Capuano, CEO of Marriott, told CNBC that the company anticipates a modest but significant increase in U.S. revenue per available room of about 40 basis points due to World Cup activity. For its part, Airbnb anticipates that this will be its largest event to date, surpassing the 2024 Olympics in Paris, relying on families and groups seeking greater space or lower per-person rates. According to Sojern data, over 75% of World Cup travelers intend to spend six to twelve nights at their destination. For businesses that don’t appear in headline GDP figures but can tell the difference between a busy and slow summer, such as restaurants, local shops, and tour operators, this is encouraging.
A more measured read was provided in a report published earlier this spring by Oxford Economics. Indeed, leisure and hospitality will grow at above-average rates in the 11 US host metro areas. Dallas, New York, and Houston ought to gain the most. However, the analysts were cautious to point out that rather than creating truly new economic activity, a large portion of the tourism activity will only displace current tourists. There will probably be little increase in employment in cities like Miami and New York, which are already overrun with tourists. Any long-term narrative is limited by the lack of significant new infrastructure, in contrast to earlier World Cups held in nations that constructed stadiums from the ground up.
Additionally, the infrastructure is either unprepared or, to be honest, subpar. The nine-mile commuter ride to MetLife Stadium will cost $150 round-trip, according to NJ Transit. New light rail extensions and electromobility corridors are among the transportation improvements in Mexico City that are intended to last beyond the competition. It is difficult to overlook the contrast.
Whether the entire travel surge will occur prior to the final whistle in July is still up in the air. According to reports, some fans are still finishing up their plans. Companies are hoping that, match by match, momentum grows. However, what is already apparent is that each city’s preparation reveals something honest about its priorities, including who it was built for and whether or not the locals will be able to use any of it.
